Ontario has again shattered its record for the number of daily new cases of the coronavirus, posting 1,575 cases on Thursday. New modeling suggests the province could see explosive growth as it continues into the second wave of the pandemic.
The new modeling released by the Ontario government suggests that by mid-December, the province could see 3,000-6,500 daily cases of COVID-19. It would also see the 150-bed intensive care threshold exceeded by the end of this month.
The new data comes after three straight record-breaking days.
“Key indicators of the pandemic continue to worsen," said Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, "and although the impact varies widely across regions in the province, most indicators are moving in a worsening direction across the entire province.”
Brown said COVID-19 cases in Ontario have been growing and are currently at a positivty rate of 5%. That means Ontario could, within weeks, have more cases per capita than France, Germany and Britain.
He also said the measures currently in place to slow the growth of the virus are not enough. Brown said based on the current growth, the province could have 400 patients in intensive care within the next six weeks. At that point, it would be almost impossible to handle non-COVID-19 health needs.
Premier Doug Ford said he will make a decision Friday whether to move forward to the next stage in the lockdown system.