Ontario projects new infections to hit 1,000 per day by mid-October

Oct 1, 2020

New modeling for the coronavirus in Ontario suggests that new infections could reach 1,000 a day by mid-October. But the provincial government said it is not time to roll Ontario back to Stage 2.

Some healthcare professionals say that dramatic increase projected for Ontario is a remarkably high surge.

Ashleigh Tuite is an epidemiologist with the Dalla Lana School of Public health at the University of Toronto.

"We’re at a stage right now in Ontario and in Quebec where we have been seeing, week on week, these large increases in cases. So if that continues forward and if we don’t change anything, we are going to get into the 1,000 cases a day in the very near future," Tuite said.
Ontario’s hospitals, particularly, have been sounding the alarm about what the spike will mean and are urging the provincial government to turn the economic reopening back to Stage 2.

Christine Elliott is the Ontario health minister.
"However, we’re listening to the chief medical officer of health and the public health doctors who don’t feel we are at that point right just now, but we are watching that daily," Elliott said.
Ontario is looking at three scenarios for COVID-19 patients to be admitted to hospitals. As a high scenario, the first is based on Victoria, Australia, where admissions surged to nearly 600. The second is based on Michigan, where they jumped to 250. The low scenario is based on Ontario’s first wave, with 150.

The government’s own assessment suggests that once hospital admissions exceed 350 people, the situation will become impossible to handle.