Poll shows dead heat in Congressional race

Aug 20, 2012

The race for the 27th Congressional District is a dead heat, that according to a recent poll conducted by the Buffalo News, WGRZ and Sienna College.

The poll found a mere 2% edge for Republican Chris Collins over incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul. The margin of error for the poll is near 4%.  7% of those queried remain undecided.

“As Hochul faces her first re-election, in a newly drawn district, against Collins, the former Erie County Executive, she finds herself in a race that couldn’t get much tighter now and looks like it will remain a barnburner over the course of the next 11 weeks,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “It’s dead even – 47 percent for each – in the Erie County portion of the district and Collins has a narrow 46-44 percent edge in the remainder of the district. Hochul has the support of eight in ten Democrats, while nearly three-quarters of Republicans are backing Collins, as are independent voters by a 47-41 percent margin. Collins leads among men by 16 points and Hochul has a 12-point lead among women.”

The approximately 600 potential voters polled identified jobs, healthcare and the federal deficit as concerns that need to be addressed.

Hochul is viewed favorably by 52%t of voters and unfavorably by 33%, with 15% not
knowing enough about her to have an opinion. Collins favorability rating is very similar at 48-33%,
with 19% having an opinion about him.

“Both candidates are fairly well known, and both are viewed favorably by more voters than view them
unfavorably,” Greenberg said. “Hochul is viewed a little more favorably among Democrats than is Collins
among Republicans, and she’s viewed less unfavorably by Republicans than is Collins among Democrats.
Independent voters give a slightly better favorability rating to Collins than to Hochul.”

By margins of between seven and 17 points, voters think Collins will do a better job than Hochul on jobs,
taxes and the deficit. Voters give Hochul a 10-point edge on education and a five-point edge on Afghanastan.

Hochul won a special election in the heavily Republican district last year.

You can review the crosstabs on Siena's Website.